Bitcoin Report – September 2025

Today our Independent Research Analyst, Isaac Ho from the Ainslie Research Team brings you the latest monthly deep dive specifically on Bitcoin – including market analysis, on-chain metrics, sentiment, and technical analysis. He highlights some of the key charts that were discussed and analysed by our expert panel in the latest Beyond the Block episode and expands upon his work with some additional insights. We encourage you to watch the video of the original presentation if you haven’t already.

MVRV Ratio & Market Implications

The MVRV Z-Score metric is showing that we have been losing velocity and that price has been akin to a slow staircase movement, suggesting this cycle has an inherently different nature compared to other cycles. This would make sense considering asset maturation, overall adoption, market capitalization, and the amount of capital required to create large movements that generate significant deviation scores.

At its base level, this metric/indicator can be viewed as a gauge of how excited participants are. What we can clearly see is that market participants are not showing the same levels of excitement as previously observed. This is also supported by hard sentiment metrics.

Cycle Behaviour & Sentiment Patterns

The conventional Fear and Greed Index dipped into the fear region for a short period of time. It conveys choppy sentiment swings that resemble what you would expect to see in a typical “wall of worry.” The fact that we haven’t seen any major sentiment shifts into the extremes suggests that we should expect a break into either extreme fear or greed. I tend to prefer the latter for the current stage of this bull cycle.

FOMO Finder & Sentiment Signals

The FOMO Finder is painting a very similar picture. The key takeaway is that the moves are becoming shorter, which suggests significant compression. This aligns with other traditional metrics, such as the Bollinger Bands, which are also showing major compression. Typically, in these cases, price tends to break out sharply. Given that we are in the late stages of the bull cycle, an upside move makes the most sense to me.

Google Trends & Retail Behaviour

Google Trends data is rather depressing for those hoping for “retail exit liquidity.” What we are seeing is a major lack of interest and sharp rejection of any spikes in attention. The ironic part is how high Bitcoin currently is, yet no one seems to care. All the more, this sets up a recipe for higher prices and fits perfectly into the narrative of climbing the wall of worry.

Funding Rates

Funding rates can be viewed as one of the most authentic sentiment metrics. They track the degree of leverage in the market and, in essence, reveal how one-sided or neutral positioning is. Currently, we are seeing fairly balanced rates with no major spikes. Typically, after a large move, you’ll see a sharp spike in funding rates as exchanges attempt to bring perpetual markets back in line with spot ratios. Another key point is that when we see negative funding rates in a bull market, it often presents the best opportunity to position oneself in the marketplace.

Macro Cycle Positioning

The BTC Macro Cycles chart is showing that we are entering the region where major cycle tops must be considered. That said, the global liquidity backdrop remains the most important metric to track, and traditional cycle structures may no longer apply—especially given how this cycle has already behaved very differently from its predecessors.

Structure vs. Liquidity

Taking a glance at the Weekly Cycles alongside a basic Stochastic RSI, we can see that price is in the neighborhood of forming a new weekly cycle low. The true confirmation of this would be the RSI ticking back into positive momentum and showing growth. That said, it is very normal to see chop and indecisive price action around this region, which often traps a large number of traders.

Memecoin Metrics

Moving on to a somewhat funny yet surprisingly useful indicator: the meme coin metric. This metric tracks three main data points, primarily involving sentiment. Historically, major spikes in meme coin interest often signal that a local top in Bitcoin is near. According to this metric, we are not seeing such signals now, which is a positive sign for more upside.

Watch the most recent video presentation of Bitcoin Analysis: Beyond the Block where we share some of these explanations in a panel format, and join the discussion on our YouTube Channel here:

We will return with a more detailed analysis of everything Bitcoin next month, including more market analysis, on-chain metrics, sentiment, and technical analysis.

Isaac Ho
Independent Research Analyst
The Ainslie Group

https://x.com/IsaacFinance_YT